NFL Week 3 Picks: Road Warriors

The NFL lineup this week features 11 games in which the road team is favored, including the Rams’ victory at San Francisco on Thursday. We all know that not all 11 of these teams will win, so the trick comes down to picking the one or two home dogs that will pull off upsets.

I should have some confidence heading into this Sunday—with back-to-back 12-3 weeks to open the season—but road favorites make me nervous. Gamble at your own risk.

Ravens (-3) at Jaguars: The unbeaten Ravens finally get out of their division, taking the show on the road to Wembley Stadium in the league’s first game this year in London. I give the edge to Baltimore’s defense against an offense led by Blake Bortles. Ravens 21, Jaguars 14

Broncos (-3) at Bills: Denver played an impressive all-around game last Sunday against Dallas, while the Bills managed only a field goal at Carolina. For some reason, Vegas has the line at three points, which means some smart people have information I don’t have. Nothing new there. Broncos 24, Bills 16

Saints at Panthers (-5.5): One of these days, the Saints’ offense is going to catch fire. The question is whether their defense will be able to keep them in the game. These teams combined for 29 points last week, but I feel a shootout coming on. Panthers 31, Saints 28

Steelers (-7.5) at Bears: It gives me great pleasure to report that the Bears are bad. It gives me even greater pleasure to report that Mike Glennon and Mitchell Trubisky are the team’s top two options at quarterback. Steelers 27, Bears 17

Falcons (-3) at Lions: Detroit is one of the home underdogs I like this week, but I’m not sure I can pick against Atlanta’s track team of an offense. I’ve seen enough of the Falcons over the past year or so to give them the benefit of the doubt, but the Lions are growing on me. Falcons 30, Lions 28

Browns (-1) at Colts: I can see that little number to the right of “Browns,” indicating that they are favored to win this game. But I also see that it says “Browns.” My long history of watching professional football tells me not to trust anything that says “Browns.” Colts 13, Browns 10

Buccaneers (-2.5) at Vikings: If Sam Bradford were playing this game, I would probably lean toward the Vikings. Alas, Sam Bradford will be out with a case of the Sam Bradfords. The Bucs looked good in their opener last week (and yes, I realize they were playing the Bears). Bucs 24, Vikings 20

Texans at Patriots (-14): Now, that’s more like it. After being embarrassed in the first game of the season, New England bounced back with 36 points in New Orleans. I like the defending champs over a team starting a true freshman at quarterback. Patriots 30, Texans 14

Dolphins (-6) at Jets: If the Jets win a game this season, they will likely have to do it as the underdog. I don’t see Vegas making them the favorite any time soon. That said, their defense is solid enough to keep this one close. Dolphins 21, Jets 17

Giants at Eagles (-6): The Giants have looked bad through two games with a minus-30 point differential, worst in the league. On the other side, Philadelphia has one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL led by a quarterback who is trying to win games rather than trying not to lose. Eagles 24, Giants 17

Seahawks at Titans (-2.5): A classic matchup between one of the best defenses in football (Seattle, still) and an emerging offense that put up 37 points last Sunday. The Titans will soon discover that they’re not playing the Jaguars this week. Seahawks 21, Titans 20

Bengals at Packers (-7.5): The Packers entered last Sunday’s game against Atlanta a bit beat up and ended the game even more damaged. Six starters are listed as doubtful against the Bengals, which should level the playing field. Packers 24, Bengals 17

Chiefs (-3) at Chargers: It only took two games, but NFL fans are already wondering what it’ll take to move the Chargers back to San Diego. It doesn’t seem Los Angeles was clamoring for one team, let alone two. A 4-12 season won’t help the Chargers’ case. Chiefs 27, Chargers 14

Raiders (-3) at Redskins: Here’s another line I’m not sold on. A three-point spread for the Raiders doesn’t seem as though it’s enough. West Coast teams struggle in the Eastern time zone, but the late start should help Oakland. Raiders 28, Redskins 23

Monday

Cowboys (-3) at Cardinals: Dallas was manhandled by the Broncos last week. I anticipate the Cowboys’ offensive line showing up and trying to reassert itself as the best unit in the league. Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20

Record last week: 12-3 straight up (80 percent), 7-8 against the spread (46.7 percent)

Record this season: 24-6 straight up (80 percent), 16-14 against the spread (53.3 percent)

Best pick last week: Ravens 24, Browns 9 (Ravens won, 24-10)

Worst pick last week: Cowboys 24, Broncos 23 (Broncos won, 42-17)