NFL Week 1 Picks: Happy New Year

Happy New Year, football fans. The collegians and high schoolers are already a week or two into their seasons, but the pros finally get started tonight.

The first three or four weeks of an NFL season are traditionally difficult to predict, but I will bravely publish my picks here for all to mock—mainly because I’m not putting a dime of real money on any of these games.

So … on to the picks, which, the 906 Sports Page legal department advises me to announce, are for entertainment purposes only. Gamble at your own risk.

Thursday

Chiefs at Patriots (-9): After an incredible comeback victory in the Super Bowl (or an inexplicable collapse by Atlanta, depending on your point of view), the Patriots actually improved their roster in the offseason. One of the big questions among casual observers is whether New England has a realistic shot at a 19-0 season. Game 1 against Kansas City, the No. 2 seed in the AFC last year, will showcase the Patriots’ dynamic passing game. With Roger Goodell in the house, look for New England to cover. Patriots 28, Chiefs 14

Sunday

Jets at Bills (-9): There are seven divisional matchups in Week 1, and this game between AFC East bottom feeders is a perfect example of why the Patriots will cruise to a first-round playoff bye: Six of their 16 games are against the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills. I like Buffalo in this one (I can’t imagine a scenario all season in which I’ll pick the Jets to win), but the spread seems a bit too wide. Bills 24, Jets 17

Falcons (-7) at Bears: The Falcons are saying all the right things about putting their historic Super Bowl implosion behind them. Unlike some Super Bowl losers from recent years, I don’t envision them missing the playoffs. In fact, they have enough talent to contend again for the top seed in the NFC. One question is what the explosive offense will look like under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Falcons 31, Bears 13

Ravens at Bengals (-3): Baltimore was 8-8 last season, good for second in the AFC North. Cincinnati finished 6-9 and in third place in the division. I expect both teams to finish in the same slots this year within a game or two of their 2016 win totals. The difference in this Week 1 matchup is at quarterback, with the Ravens’ Joe Flacco only recently returning to practice. Bengals 23, Ravens 17

Steelers (-9) at Browns: The Browns will be the most-improved team in the AFC North, but that’s not saying much. They’ll improve from one victory to four or five. Rookie Deshone Kizer earned the starting quarterback job in Cleveland, but he doesn’t have any proven targets to throw to. Pittsburgh will win the division by two or three games. Steelers 28, Browns 10

Cardinals (-1.5) at Lions: I have no problem with Matthew Stafford’s status as the top-paid player in the league. You have to take a few factors into consideration with these contracts: First, teams know that if they have a quarterback, they must do whatever they can to keep him. Second, highest-paid doesn’t mean best. Third, these contracts are a product of timing. Stafford got paid because the clock was running out on his previous deal. He’ll be bumped from the top spot as soon as another franchise guy’s time is up. In Week 1, he’ll have something to prove against a superior opponent. Lions 24, Cardinals 21

Jaguars at Texans (-6): In light of Hurricane Harvey, it’s hard to root against Houston. For one week, at least, we won’t have to. Their roster is deeper and more talented than Jacksonville’s, so I see a comfortable victory for the Texans. Add their motivation to give Houstonians something to cheer about, and they’ll cover. Texans 20, Jaguars 10

Raiders at Titans (-1.5): The Raiders went 12-4 last season, outpacing projections by a couple of games. I like them again but don’t see how they can improve on that record. If anything, they’ll fall back a game or two, which should still be enough for a playoff berth. I’m looking forward to seeing how Derek Carr responds to the expectations that have been thrust upon him, and how Marshawn Lynch looks after a year off. Raiders 24, Titans 20

Eagles (-1) at Redskins: Home field is typically worth three points in a spread, which means Vegas thinks the Eagles would be four points better than Washington on a neutral field. That feels right based on talent and trajectory. A big question for the Redskins is the passing game: Kirk Cousins has been up and down throughout his career, and now he has a revamped receiver corps without DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. In addition, head coach Jay Gruden will now be calling plays, replacing former OC Sean McVay, who has moved on to greener paychecks as coach of the Rams. Eagles 27, Redskins 21

Colts at Rams (-3.5): Speaking of McVay, he’s favored to win his head-coaching debut over the Colts, who will take the field without their best player, Andrew Luck. Luck is a top-eight QB, but the Indianapolis front office and coaching staff have never been able to hire or train a line that can protect him. It’s a shame, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to get better this year. According to Sports Illustrated’s ranking of the top 400 players in the league, the Colts’ best o-lineman is center Ryan Kelly, who came in at 356th overall. Rams 20, Colts 7

Seahawks at Packers (-3): Both of these teams have the pieces to end up in the 11- to 13-win range, which will make them contenders for division titles. The major problem area for the Packers last year was the defensive backfield, which the team addressed in the draft and free agency. Can the offense—particularly the passing game—compensate for any shortcomings on the defensive side? Aaron Rodgers is my pick for league MVP, and I expect him to start the season the way he played down the stretch in 2016. Packers 27, Seahawks 23

Panthers (-6) at 49ers: The Niners are bad, again, and this will be a deck-clearing season for the new GM-coach tandem of John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan. They know they don’t have a franchise quarterback on the roster, but a four- or five-win season will put them in good position in next year’s QB-rich draft. Panthers 24, 49ers 14

Giants at Cowboys (-3.5): I wish both of these teams could lose. From LeBatard’s circus: Giants coach Ben McAdoo looks like the dad who says his unathletic son didn’t make the freshman baseball team due to “politics.” Cowboys 26, Giants 21 

Monday

Saints at Vikings (-3.5): The Vikings are more talented than the Saints, from top to bottom, but I always like New Orleans coach Sean Payton when he has extra time to prepare for an opponent. And you know he started studying Minnesota’s film the day after last season ended. However, I’ll go with the home team in prime time. Vikings 31, Saints 24

Chargers at Broncos (-3.5): This is what the bottom half of the AFC West looks like. They’re pretty evenly matched, but I’ll go with the Broncos, whose new offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, was fired as the Chargers’ head coach last season. Broncos 24, Chargers 20

Postponed

Buccaneers at Dolphins: Because of Hurricane Irma, this game has been moved to Week 11. Can’t wait.